Matt Lodge will reportedly miss a large chunk of the NRL season after suffering a partial tear to his ACL at training on Wednesday.

The blow to the key Broncos forward will have enormous SuperCoach ramifications on the entire pack.

It’s expected to solidify the minutes of a number of men, while opportunities should open up for others.

Obviously there will be a serious watch on the Brisbane trials as well as any word out of Red Hill from Anthony Seibold.

While plenty of uncertainty remains, here’s how we see Brisbane’s pack being impacted.

MATT LODGE

Firstly, what void will be left by Lodge?

Lodge averaged 57 minutes per game last season, while Seibold was happy to play his starting prop in excess of 60 minutes on many occasions.

Seibold has a preference for playing his best players, and props, for increased minutes should they be able to churn them out.

Therefore, it’s unlikely the man considered a club leader would’ve seen a regression in game time in 2020.

TEVITA PANGAI JNR

TPJ may come into major consideration as a result of the injury.

With David Fifita locked into one edge role, TPJ was vying for the starting role with veteran Alex Glenn.

TPJ recently stated his preference to play in the back-row rather than the middle.

Basically, Seibold now must decide if he moves Joe Ofahengaue to prop (he started the first six rounds there in 2020), to allow TPJ to start at lock.

It seems logical, although he has plenty of options in the pack to promote to the starting prop role.

It’s likely we’ll see the Tongan international start on an edge then shift to the middle at stages throughout the match.

TPJ averaged 60MPG last season, so there now appears, fitness pending, an opportunity for increased game time.

With dual FRF/2RF status at an affordable $540,600k, he now warrants consideration as a result of the injury.

JOE OFAHENGAUE

Starting lock role or not, Ofa was fairly irrelevant prior to Lodge’s injury due to the masses of front-row options in the side. Now, he’s worth some consideration.

He scored at an impressive 1.12PPM last season for an average of 48PPG in 43MPG.

This should see a fairly significant rise in game time for the middle man, perhaps 5-15 minutes, but it’s hard to know at this early stage.

Ofa is awkwardly priced at $449,500, so there’s obvious risk, but not without upside.

PAYNE HAAS

We won’t waste much time here, Haas was already in just about every side to start the year regardless.

It simply solidifies the fact he’ll maintain his 64MPG average from 2019, which is reassuring when you’re forking out $728k for a young bloke in his second serious year in the NRL.

DAVID FIFITA

Again, keeping it short.

Any doubts over Fifita’s 80-minute role should now be put to rest.

With TPJ likely in line to spend time in the middle, Fifita shouldn’t be taking a sit at any stage.

THOMAS FLEGLER AND PATRICK CARRIGAN

Both men look to be the major benefactors of the injury to Lodge.

They should both receive increased game time, while one of the two could start at prop should Seibold opt to keep Ofahengaue at lock.

Flegler ($294,900) averaged 32MPG in his debut NRL season, while Carrigan ($326,300) averaged 34MPG.

Both players scored at a tick over 1PPM.

THE VERDICT

It’s hard to assess at this early stage, but we can only have a crack.

The easy option out of this for Seibold is to start captain Alex Glenn in the back-row, TPJ at lock and Ofahengaue at prop.

This may well be his decision, but let’s say TPJ stays on an edge with Joe O remaining at lock which is also a very viable solution.

This would open up a starting prop role, which would fall to either of the rookies in Carrigan or Flegler.

Carrigan is extremely highly regarded at Brisbane, but he’s not as big a body as Flegler.

Seibold will probably want to replace size with size, so Flegler probably starts.

Regardless of who is chosen, both Carrigan and Flegler would both likely play a minimum of 10-15 minutes extra.

TPJ may get an extra 5-10 minutes, although if his body holds up he could be in line for a serious increase.

Even if starting on an edge, it looks as though he’ll have to spend time in the middle to cover the minutes lost by Lodge.

Ofahengaue should also play an additional 10-15 minutes to help fill the void.

Regardless of who comes onto the bench remains fairly SuperCoach irrelevant as it’s hard to see them gaining enough minutes to earn any decent cash.

Keep an eye out for extremely highly regarded young Broncos prop (yep, another one), Ethan Bullemor.

Cronulla playmaker Shaun Johnson looms as one of the most intriguing and important selection decisions to begin the SuperCoach season.

Johnson’s enormous ceiling could make-or-break the early stages of the year, particularly should the likes of Mitchell Moses and Nathan Cleary falter around him.

While he’ll be popular for many, a large number of SuperCoaches have placed the flamboyant Sharks five-eighth on their ‘never again’ list as a result of his injury.

With the amount at stake on the decision, we’re taking a deep dive into whether or not Johnson is worth taking the gamble on to start 2020.

After being a standout halves option in past seasons, SJ came back to the pack in 2018 and 2019 with respectable averages of 64 and 63PPG.

Despite numerous injuries, he still managed to average 80 and 76MPG in each season, thus meaning his scores haven’t been too effected by the injuries (at least in regards to overall game time).

Johnson has played over 18 games in a season just once in the past five years (2016).

His base of just 18BPG is underwhelming, however, it’s been heavily impacted by a reduced running game while playing without full fitness.

Many fans fail to appreciate the difficulty in moving to a new club for playmakers, in particular key halves such as Johnson.

The greatest combinations in rugby league history struggled at times in their early formation.

Most recently, the new-look Roosters spine back in 2018 of James Tedesco, Cooper Cronk, Luke Keary and Jake Friend.

Tedesco that season averaged 63PPG in the opening 15 rounds, then finished the season with an average 96PPG in his final seven games once finding his mojo alongside his new combination.

That’s not to say SJ matches Tedesco’s following season exploits; simply that the improvement should come naturally.

It took the star quartet several months to hit their straps on field and in SuperCoach scoring.

With a full season in the Shire behind him, Johnson will be far more at home with the men around him.

In validation, when seemingly back to full fitness at the back end of 2019, Johnson went on an absolute tear.

He averaged 80PPG in the final eight games of the season.

Vital to his SuperCoach selection in 2020 will be the fact he’s available as a dual HFB-5/8.

Dual positioning has been cut down across the game this season.

Many of his main halves rivals including Cleary, Moses, Cody Walker, Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster have been locked into their sole positions.

Never underestimate the value of dual position status, particularly to begin this season with many having Raiders recruit George Williams in their side – also a dual HFB-5/8.

A serious downside to his selection is Cronulla’s brutal opening fixtures.

The Sharks face the Rabbitohs, Storm, Knights, Bulldogs, Roosters and Broncos in their opening six weeks.

Read into that as you will…

Furthermore, with Shark Park’s redevelopment he won’t be playing at his regular home ground throughout the season, with the club to play home games at Jubilee Oval.

It should also be noted Cronulla have the bye in Round 12, so SJ won’t be available for the first major bye week.

As for his current health?

Johnson appeared very open and honest in a recent interview where he declared his body was ‘too weak’ for the rigours of the NRL in 2019.

He returned to training almost immediately after his New Zealand Test campaign at the end of the year.

He believes his body is far stronger than it has been in the past in preparation for 2020.

It’s hard to read into too many pre-season comments, but Johnson is one of the more forward NRL players when speaking, and he seems bullish about his fitness levels.

So you’ve heard of second-year syndrome in the NRL.

The theory that the first year a gun rookie is exposed to the NRL they are new and catch teams and coaches off guard.

But come the second season, the team of coaches from all clubs have fully analysed their game.

That they have coached their players in ways to negate the strengths of the gun rookie resulting in a drop in performance.

Well, today we’re going to look at the theory in a SuperCoach light.

To do this properly, firstly, we have to look back a bit before we look forward.

Please note some of the players we are looking at below may have made their debuts earlier but for the purposes of this SuperCoach analysis we are looking at the first year they became relevant SuperCoach guns.

Then we will analyse how they fared in their second year.

So, as an experiment, we have picked six of the best SuperCoach breakout players in 2017 and 2018 to see how they performed the following year.

Below are the breakout stars of 2018 and how they fared in 2019.

To note:

– For Ponga, an increase in SuperCoach points from goal-kicking helped him slightly better his average PPG despite the failed five-eighth experiment early in the season.

– Isaako was the opposite with a significant decrease in SuperCoach points from goals.
He dropped from scoring 15.7PPG for goal kicks in 2018 to 9.4PPG in 2019.

– Matt Lodge’s increased role and minutes clearly had a lot to do with his improved average.

– Reimis Smith dropped significantly which is probably consistent with the erratic nature of the CTW position for most players.

Below are the breakout stars of 2017 and how they fared in 2018.

To note:

– Esan Marsters gained the goal-kicking duties for the Tigers in 2018 hence the sharp increase in average.

IN SUMMARY

So what can we deduce from the two samples?

It’s hard to get anything conclusive out of the data. There was no major correlation in why scores differentiated.

The main note to be taken when considering boom rookies from the prior season is that forwards will naturally be more likely to gain an increase in minutes than their backline counterparts.

A likely increase or similar minutes means forwards are the safest options if concern arises over second year syndrome.

Of the seven forwards listed, just two (Eisenhuth and Arrow) produced smaller averages, both by minor margins.

Casting aside players who averaged around 80 minutes last season (Nikora, Bateman), this would suggest the likes of Luke Garner, Payne Haas, Cameron Murray and David Fifita are most likely set for SuperCoach improvement.

Backs are already playing the full 80, and if they’ve had stats to propel them to the top of SuperCoach charts, they are far more likely to struggle to attain similar numbers.

Edwards, Isaako and Smith all experienced significant drops having been unable to back up their previous season’s exploits.

All in all, second-year syndrome impacts backs greater than forwards, but not significantly enough to suggest it should be a major concern when selecting your team.