Tipping Point’s View: Rd 6 Tips

Struggling with who to tip? Confused as to who will perform because of all the upsets, surprised performances or bad games? Do not fear, our tipping guru Tipping Point is here to help you out. Here are his tips for Rd 6.

Round 6 Tips

Last week was a welcome return to tipping form in a round which produced five upset results and seven away wins: it was always going to be a tough round when the two shortest-price favourites (Knights and Roosters) got rolled in back-to-back fixtures! Pleasingly we picked two of the five upsets (Raiders and Tigers) and it’s these results that really catapult you up the ladder. Picking favourites each week is a safe strategy but not a winning strategy: you need to consistently land the 50/50 tips and nail the odd upset if you’re going to stand any chance of winning your competition. Despite a solid week’s score I missed out on the stand-out for the second time this year thanks to the Roosters’ poor performance against the Sharks. On paper they were the most dependable and likely side of the round, yet they never at any stage looked like winning that game. I guess that unpredictability is part of why we all love the game and keep trying to jag that elusive perfect round in tipping. Here’s hoping it comes this week!

Season: 25/40 (63%) – Last week: 5/8 – Stand-outs: 3/5

At a glance: Knights, Roosters, Eels, Warriors, Penrith, Storm, Dragons, Cowboys

Stand-out: Eels

Sharks v Knights, Remondis Stadium

The Sharks chalked up their first win since July 2014 against the Roosters on the weekend in a game which featured scintillating performances from youngsters Jack Bird and Valentine Holmes. In contrast, the Knights, previously unbeaten, were outmuscled by the Dragons in a surprise loss at home last round. Despite just one win this season, ten straight defeats at home and just two wins from their last ten matches against the Knights, the Sharkies are narrow favourites with the bookies and the tipping trend would be about even. But I’m not convinced it’s this close. The Knights will bounce back strongly after a disappointing effort last week and should get home on the back of the superior kicking game of Mullen and Roberts.

Tip: Knights.

Broncos v Roosters, Suncorp Stadium

This is the hardest tip of the round for mine and I’m having trouble splitting them. The Roosters have been pretty patchy this season, and their performance against the Sharks was diabolical. The Broncos on the other hand have been arguably the most consistent side in the comp, notching four straight wins – albeit over weaker opposition. The Roosters are coming off a Sunday match which means a shorter turn-around and the Broncos are also at home, where they’ve won seven of their last nine matches. There’s also plenty of conjecture on both sides about the final line-ups, with Hodges, Kahu, Blair and Friend all rumoured ins. We won’t know for sure until an hour before kick-off – we do know that the Roosters will be without Guerra who will miss an extended period with a broken jaw – that’s a big loss. The evidence suggests a close Broncos victory, but I get the feeling the Roosters are up for a big game. They’ll want to erase the memories of their Sharks capitulation and I think their outside backs would fancy their chances.

Tip: Roosters.

Eels v Titans, Pirtek Stadium

The Eels have won nine of their last 11 at Pirtek and have already posted wins over Souths and Manly at home this year. They’ll also be ruing their loss to the Tigers last week and eager to make amends after giving the game away with some poor handling in the last ten minutes. Parramatta should be too good for the Titans, who certainly have a dig each week but have a few too many errors and penalties in their game to threaten the better sides and the Eels look a million bucks when they play at home.

Tip: Eels

Warriors v Tigers, Mt Smart Stadium

Any game involving the Warriors is always tricky, let alone playing a side like the Tigers who are reasonably unpredictable themselves. Last week they came from the clouds to score three brilliant tries in the final ten minutes to beat the Eels in a match in which they never looked like getting out of first gear. I don’t feel comfortable about it, but I’ll take the Warriors here. They have a good record over the Tigers and after two straight losses I think they’re due for a win. They showed glimpses of good form against the Storm and I think the young Tigers side might struggle backing up across the Tasman.

Tip: Warriors.

Penrith v Manly, Pepper Stadium

Penrith and Manly were two of last year’s best sides but they’ve been in freefall this year due to injuries to key players. Manly in particular look a shadow of their former selves and their forward pack is really struggling – they currently sit rock bottom of the table, a spot they haven’t occupied since 2004. The Panthers have failed to win a game since Jamie Soward was ruled out for an extended period, and they looked all at sea against the Cowboys. It’s a tough game to pick but I think the Panthers have more upside. I can’t see them losing back-to-back matches at home and the Penrith forwards should win the battle in the middle, leaving the likes of Mansour, Idris and Moylan to do some damage against a weakened Manly backline

Tip: Penrith

Raiders v Storm, GIO Stadium

Even though they’ve only chalked up three wins the Storm have been impressive this year, and what about Marika Koroibete – as they say, you can’t coach speed and the flying winger makes such a difference with his aggressive kick returns and fast finishing. The Raiders will be buoyed following a solid win over Manly and an outstanding return to the top grade for halfback Sam Williams, but the Storm will be a much sterner test than the injury-depleted Sea-Eagles. I think Melbourne will get the job done in the Nation’s Capital where they have a decent success rate with 10 wins from their last 12 matches at GIO Stadium – even though they’ll be without Slater.

Tip: Melbourne

Dragons v Bulldogs, ANZ Stadium

This promises to be a pretty committed game of footy. The Dogs, decimated by injuries and suspension will be looking to put a controversial week behind them whereas the Dragons will be hoping to notch their fourth straight win – an amazing achievement considering they started the season with consecutive losses and were trailing the Raiders 18-0 in what turned out to be their first win of the year. What’s more amazing is the fact that the Dragons have conceded just one try and one goal since halftime in round three. They have the best defence, but also the worst attack with just 55 points in five matches. But who cares when you’re winning games? And I think the Dragons will keep their winning streak alive this weekend. The Dogs are just missing too many front-liners with Graham, Brett Morris, Kasiano, Klemmer and Lafai all out. There won’t be much in it, but the Dragons should be able to defend their way to another win.

Tip: Dragons.

Souths v Cowboys, ANZ Stadium

The Cowboys play a Monday night fixture for the third straight week coming up against the Bunnies, playing their first match since the demolition derby against the Bulldogs all the way back on Good Friday. Most are backing the Bunnies and they’re favoured with the bookies, but I reckon their form is pretty average and without Reynolds to steer them around they’re a much weaker outfit. The Cowboys were awesome against the Panthers and JT delivered an absolute masterclass: I expect them to maintain the rage and notch their fourth straight win over the Bunnies. In saying that, I have not picked the Cowboys correctly all year so they are my bogey side – hopefully I can break my duck.

Tip: Cowboys.

Follow Tipping Point on Twitter: @tpoint1908

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