With so much uncertainty regarding tipping as teams either perform strongly or falter badly, it has never made tipping so hard. To try and help, our tipping Guru Tipping Point is back for another week to try and put your minds at ease. Here are his tips and views this week.
Round 14 Tips
Season: 56/99 (57%) â€“ Last week: 4/8
At a glance: Souths, Warriors, Bulldogs, Storm, NSW
Tigers v Rabbitohs, ANZ Stadium
Itâ€™s desperation stations for the Tigers with just two wins from their past nine, and four straight losses. The pressure is mounting on coach JT and without Farah and Woods they could be in for a tough night against the Bunnies who have strung together three straight wins â€“ all without Reynolds (noting there are whispers he could return this week). Despite just one win over Souths in their last eight matches, I give the Tigers some hope in this match â€“ particularly with Isaac Luke missing â€“ but the big Bunnies pack should win the battle in the middle and between Johnston, Walker, Keary and Sutton they should get home against a side low on form and morale.
Warriors v Roosters, Mount Smart Stadium
Iâ€™m cranky with the Warriors after they let me down so severely last week. As they let in try after try over in Perth I vowed never to tip them again â€“ but Iâ€™m going to tempt fate and pick them this week. I was actually leaning to the Chooks up until JWH was ruled out, and with their pack already missing Guerra and Cordner I think theyâ€™re vulnerable. The Roosters really struggled when Guerra was out earlier in the year and without Pearce and Jennings the tri-colours are definitely stretched. The Warriors have a good record over the Roosters at home and I expect them to get up. Just.
Titans v Bulldogs, Cbus Super Stadium
Yuck. This is a really awful game to call with so many players out: the Titans are ravaged by injury (Elgey the latest to join the injury list and Sezer is in some doubt) whereas the Dogs have five players representing NSW and skipper Graham on the sidelines. It makes it exceptionally difficult to pick a winner, but I just cannot back the Titans at home. Theyâ€™ve won two of their last fifteen at home which is just deplorable, and they do seem to be a much better side on the road. The Dogs have put consecutive wins together on the back of massive games from Mbye and Reynolds and I think thereâ€™s a touch more class in their line-up.
Storm v Eels, AAMI Park
Arenâ€™t Origin weeks great? This game is really hard to read and Iâ€™ve flip-flopped between both sides all week. Thereâ€™s certainly a case for the Eels: theyâ€™ve only lost one player to Origin, they played quite well for the first hour against the Cowboys, the knocked over the Panthers on the road the week beforeâ€¦ But I donâ€™t think I can tip them after their capitulation last Monday. The Storm actually have an OK record over the Origin period and I expect some of their lesser-lights to stand up and get them home â€“ they also have the edge in the forward pack led by the Bromwich brothers, Proctor and the reliable Ryan Hinchcliffe. Cameron Munster, the heir to Slaterâ€™s #1 jersey, is a future superstar.
Queensland v New South Wales
Most tipping comps require a tip for the interstate fixture so Iâ€™ll give you my 2c. If youâ€™re nicely positioned in your comp and want to play conservative, take the Maroons. Theyâ€™re heavily favoured with the bookies and Iâ€™d expect 75% of tipsters to take them. But a case can be made for tipping the Blues. They had the better of game one for the first half and Queensland were on the ropes at half time. But for a woeful second-half performance, punctuated by some shocking errors and penalties, they could and should have won the match â€“ instead they dished the game up to Queensland on a silver platter. For game two Gallen and Brett Morris are big ins, and Cronk is a big out for Queensland: DCE steered the Maroons around in games one and two last year and couldnâ€™t get them over the line, and with Slater nursing a busted shoulder the Blues are a big hope to level the series: just looking at the history books, since 2000 the game one result has been reversed nine out of 15 times, and only one other time was it done in consecutive years â€“ which means statistically the Blues are a good bet. Tip them as a point of difference in your comp.
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