Tipping Point’s View: Rd 16 Tips

The business end of the season is upon us and yet, it is still so hard to be able to pick the winners when it comes to tips. Some teams are flying, some teams need wins, and there’s plenty of quality games this week, many of which are hard to tip. Our tipping guru Tipping Point will try and help you out.

Round 16 Tips

Season: 66/116 (57%) – Last week: 6/7

At a glance: Broncos, Souths, Warriors, Cowboys, Dragons, Tigers, Roosters, Bulldogs

Broncos v Knights, Suncorp Stadium

This is one of those games that’s such an overwhelming lock you half expect an upset to materialise – but I don’t think it will happen. The Broncos are in ominous form, have five wins on the trot at Suncorp and are playing a team very low on morale and confidence. I reckon the Knights will have a decent dig after last week’s capitulation to the Sharks, but other than that there’s absolutely no reason to tip Newcastle in this game.

Tip: Broncos

Souths v Manly, ANZ Stadium

Souths were poor in their last FNF fixture against the Tigers, but I think we can excuse that performance as they were without GI and backing up after the dreaded Perth road trip. I expect them to be pretty fired up for this game; fresh off the bye and with Reynolds back on deck and Luke a rumoured late inclusion, I reckon they’ll get the job done. Manly are poor travellers, losing 11 of their last 12 on the road and I think their lightweight pack will get monstered.

Tip: Souths

Warriors v Raiders, Mt Smart Stadium

This game is a lot closer than the betting would make you think. While the Warriors look the more likely, don’t discount Canberra: with 5/7 on the road in 2015 their away form is behind only the Cowboys and the Broncos, and no side has scored more points than them this season. The Warriors on the other had have been pretty hit and miss all year, and even at home they’re only 3/6 which is well down on their usual record. Both sides like to throw the footy around so expect some points, but I have the Warriors just ahead – Tomkins’ availability was a key factor, as was their good record over the Raiders.

Tip: Warriors

Cowboys v Sharks, 1300Smiles Stadium

The Cowboys have opted to rest JT which makes an otherwise straightforward tip slightly awkward. Their record without JT isn’t great, and with 11 straight they’re surely edging closer to a loss – but you’d be a brave tipster to take the Sharkies in Townsville. This game essentially picks itself, but it wouldn’t surprise to see the Sharkies get up, especially if Gallen plays.

Tip: Cowboys

Eels v Dragons, Pirtek Stadium

Boardroom dramas, recruitment woes, fans in revolt, injuries galore: can things possibly get worse for the Parramatta Eels? Yes, starting with this Saturday’s game against the Red V. I do not think the Eels are good enough to knock over the Dragons, who will be desperate to get their season back on track after a couple of losses. To me, the Dragons look like a side that can dispatch of non-top eight sides and based on recent performances, the Eels will give them plenty of chances. Interestingly, the Eels have lost four in a row at Pirtek while the Dragons haven’t won there since 2010. Someone’s going to break a run of outs, and I expect it to be the Dragons quite comfortably.

Tip: Dragons

Tigers v Panthers, Leichardt Oval

This is a really close call, the toughest of the week in my opinion. The Tigers have showed some improvement in the last few weeks with a good win over the Bunnies and a close loss to Manly at Brookie, whereas the Panthers just cannot get their season started: Segeyaro went down last week (much to the chagrin of thousands of Supercoach players) which robs them of one of their best players, and with Moylan also out – possibly for the season – I think the Tigers are slightly ahead, despite the game being at Leichardt where they have, surprisingly, a poor record. Farah’s inclusion is massive – without him playing, I’d probably take the Panthers.

Tip: Tigers

Roosters v Titans, Central Coast Stadium

This game can also be filed under “overwhelming lock”; there’s just no way the Titans can win this game. Not with their injury toll, not without Sezer, and not against a side starting to flex its premiership muscle. The Roosters will win this, and should win it easily.

Tip: Roosters

Bulldogs v Storm, Belmore Sports Ground

The Doggies return to Belmore for the first time since 1998, rekindling memories of the likes of Craig Polla-Mounta, Rod Silva and Daryl Halligan. The Dogs have a good record over the Storm with four straight wins, and I expect them to make it five on Monday night. With massive doubts over Cronk’s availability I can’t take the Storm here, and I really like the look of the Doggies line-up when the Morris twins play. The Storm are solid enough when one of the Big 3 goes down, but missing two is just a bridge too far, as they showed last week against Brisbane when they were unable to break the Broncos’ line despite having all the ball and territory.

Tip: Bulldogs

As a side note, if your tipping comp has a joker round where you get double points, now would be the time to play it. I reckon there are at least four bankable tips and even if you bat at 50% for the other four, you’re still going to come out with a decent score. Touch wood.

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